Well @bdconf, I've been meaning to try out the Branch thing, this looks like the perfect opportunity!

I think we've got three different points: 1) (Guy) Apple is in a strong leadership position and will likely keep it for awhile 2) (bdconf) Apple's latest products are a bit tired and Android offers more choice and 3) (Scott) Incumbents fall all the time (e.g. IBM, Microsoft) and it's usually because something else came along

Apple has a long history of educational entrenchment which includes influencing hardware standards for common curriculum standardized testing, iBooks for academic publishing, the large availability of educational software and the expanding iTunesU content. With many school boards opting for eBook adoption, Apple is far ahead of everyone else. School boards in the US have a long standing relationship with Apple as the defacto standard for supplying school districts.

ps. iPad mini out performed by other tablets in drop testing a big plus for middle schools.

Apple's not going anywhere soon. They have tremendous resources, a strong brand and sales momentum, and extremely capable leadership.

But every commercial empire is disrupted by something. I expect Apple's surprise will be when we finally reach tech maturity to enable thin clients, so a ChromeOS tablet or SmartGlass surface is good enough. They'll still sell iPads, but won't be able to keep differentiating with engineering.

The real product, then, is the services from the network or a living room box. Of course, maybe they have the same prediction and that's why AppleTV and iCloud are big investments. But I'm worried that they aren't positioned to stop Xbox and the poorly-branded suite of Google services behind Android.

Hans, that is basically my point. Apple is staring to loose it's sheen (for some) but it ain' goin anywhere...

But the same thing is being said about Microsoft (almost verbatim) yet no one here really thinks that Microsoft is a force to be reckoned with. More of a lumbering giant to easily sidestep.

This thread was kicked off because @bdconf pointed out that 75% of all smart phones are now android and while you can say all you want about the quality of those phones, it *is* a harbinger: it means something negative for Apple.

My crazy bet: If Android escapes 'just mobile' and can be the "OS of things" AND they make it possible for these multitudes to talk easily, that would indeed be disruptive.

IMO apple will get stronger before it starts losing ground.

The mobile world is in turmoil, and apple is better situated than anyone to resolve things like smart tvs, mobile payments, voice interaction and more.

At the same time, Android has major problems with fragmentation, which are only getting worse. It's also suffering from major security concerns, and awareness to that is rising.

I would predict that, for a good number of years, we'll see what's happening today: Android will introduce new concepts, and Apple will bring those to the masses. My bet is that even if Apple doesn't come up with a new iPad-tier revolution, it'll continue leading (revenue-wise) for 5+ years.

I think Tim Cook made the right move. He is not Jobs and he knows it. Having the exact same team as Jobs would be a mistake as he won't be able to follow the exact same process. First he needs a strong and committed team around him. Cook is very strong in operations management (clearly not Jobs comfort area) so he needs someone who would provide a vision in terms in different areas (UI and design, technology,...). In my point of view, The reorganisation is more consistent. Ive takes design process end to end and enable better integration of hard and software. Eddy Cue will get a more global responsibility on Services, Federighi will better manage the integration of iOS and OSX and Mansfield will provide insights on technology.

Marketshare is only one metric to measure a platform’s viability, given the imprecise nature of determining actual Android shipments (no major Android vendor releases actual sales figures) and the disparity in “real world” usage IDC’s numbers don’t really mean much, at least to me or my clients.

I’m in charge of 30+ web properties and a few Apps that cover a vast array of market segments (federal government, retail/restaurant, charity/NPO, education, entertainment, software) and the split is opposite to shipment market share. Typically I’m seeing 65%-85% iOS. I know that’s only anecdotal, but it aligns well with other data about usage netmarketshare.com

Andrew mentioned Apple's reach and clout in the education arena and that's almost true. But I see a gaping hole in Apple's ebooks strategy. iBooks is 200 miles south of the industry standard for ebooks (AFAIK it's .epub, right?). That in itself is not a bad thing because not all standards exhibit the best implementation of available resources. However, that proprietary standard is a massive pain in the ass for publishers - big and small alike - as they'll be forced to create two electronic versions of same title, one for Apple's iBooks and the other one for the rest of the world. That doesn't sound like a good industry model to me.

Scott, I love that you raised the point "What if Android becomes the OS of things ?". I think that's exactly what Google is planning or if they aren't yet that's what they should. This other day, I heard somebody released some printers running Android. There are already TVs running Android. Next thing you know there'll be driverless cars, washing machines, refrigerators and what not running Android. One thing that would support and in fact spur, if you will, this hypothetical Android revolution will be its openness. You can take it, fork it, use it. FOR FREE. If Google succeeds in doing that, then the Google Glasses project they are working on would make much more sense. It'd be like a dashboard for your digital life, heck, for your life.

We should not compare iOS and Android... We are not talking about the same business model. Google is making softwares and Apple is making devices supported by softwares. They are leaders in integrating both and giving full power to Ive is probably the best idea Cook ever had. The key success factor will be how Mansfield (as CTO) and Ive will work together.

Ash,

That's the vision but let's keep in mind this is the same company that gave us the Nexus Q...

There are all sorts of reasons why Android isn't executing well and I can't deny those points. I'm just hoping that EVENTUALLY, they'll get their act together and make this happen. My guess is that this will be a long wait.

In the mean time, Apple will do it's brillant play at getting all your music (and hopefully videos, magazines and books) all done through their proprietary systems. These will be awesome and likely better than the standards approach, but they are effectively handcuffs so there is an innate reluctance for most people to use them.

As Alexandre says, this isn't iOS vs. Android, it's iPhone vs. Motorola's phones, HTCs phones and most notably Samsung's phones. It's the iPad vs other tablets, and it's the Macbook vs. other laptops. Apple has the best selling laptop computer, the best selling smartphone, the best selling music player and the best selling tablet. It seems strange to be discussing the viability of a company that is, by its own measure, at the top of 4 markets. And that doesn't even take into account profitability. Ultimately profitability is where the action really is, and Android doesn't have much share of that.

Too early to sing doom, I think.

1st, market share, is it relevant? What's the market share of BMW compared to GM, Lexus compared to Volkswagen? GM/VW dominate, and yet in 9/10 cases, we'd all pick a BMW over a Saturn, if only we could afford them.

2nd, if Apple is a car manufacturer, then Google is simply a provider of in-car software. Apple and Google are in two vastly different businesses. If there's a serious competitor to Apple emerging, it's Samsung.

3rd, and this is speculation, I doubt Apple was sitting on its butt in the past five years. In 2002 we talked about MS dominating Apple b/c we didn't know iPhone/iPad were in development. Perhaps today we say Samsung/Google are catching up because we don't know X is coming? I hope.

To me Apple's current advantage is that it's moved from a technology business to a being a top of the range consumer electronics business.

I think the dangers going forward come a combination of it's own hubris and control freak tendencies, and competitors who can produce similar value products at lower costs.

I own an iPad but it could just as easily be a Nexus 7 (and I wouldn't have to pay a fortune for accessories)

A simple OS like Boot 2 Gecko could really make both Apple and Google's life interesting - my Android 2.3 phone still does most of the things I want from a phone!

I disagree with the statements that the competition is about a single device vs the other. IMO it's ecosystem vs ecosystem.

When you have an iPhone, you're more inclined to buy an iPad than an android tablet, since the devices will connect better and share purchased content (apps,music). Same applies to Apple TV once apple gets it right, and future devices as well.

Android doesn't have such a clean ecosystem, partly due to fragmentation and partly due to its open nature.

I agree users (including myself) resent the lock-in, but we're still buying these and tying ourselves into the platform.

I think Apple will remain the top dog until someone new (or a revolution within Android) joins the game.

I'm not even convinced that the growth of the Android ecosystem harms Apple.

I will start selling my AAPL stock not when I'm convinced of the success of Android (or any competitor), but when I worry that Apple's products are losing their value. As Steve liked to point out long ago, BMW does well with a small market share.

What does concern me, though, is how Apple seems to not "get" the benefits of open integration. There is a lot of room for innovation in books, other media, identity services, payments, and multi-screen experiences that Apple seems to not even try for, Google is too disorganized or partner-dependant for, but Microsoft or new entrants might capitalize on.

An overnight thought...

How much could Apple's legal strategy/focus damage them as a company?

They seem really unwilling to accept the FRAND terms that are (?) in use across the industry while demanding a hight licensing rate for their own patent.

How much executive time is being ploughed into fighting these battles over in some case questionable patents, that should be being spent on product and other parts of the business instead?

They are surely expending good will and will some of the frivolous nature of the case or their childish non-apology lead to buyers looking elsewhere?

I suspect that most people don't care about the "ecosystem" at all. It's a massive bonus when they realize it, but the average person buys an iPad because it's fun and easy to use. The ecosystem of Mac/iTunes/AirPlay isn't immediately obvious and isn't necessary to have a great experience. The iPad and the iPhone themselves are desirable products, which is why they're the best selling products in their categories. The ecosystem is just a bonus for those who do notice, and provides a halo effect for Apple.

Andy, I think it depends on who you ask. I, for one, am glad that Apple is defending it's IP. Have you seen Samsung's proprietary charging port? Looks exactly like Apple's 30-pin. Or even their USB wall charger? Exact copy. Etc. If I were Apple, I'd be very mad at Samsung, and I'd defend my IP. Does Apple steal, too? Yes, and they pay tons of money for it (see Apple v Nokia settlement).

Hans, I agree on openness/standards. Not sure what's going on there.

Tim, I agree somewhat. I just moved to Canada, and my new roommate said he's switching to GS3 b/c iPhone 5 doesn't have "4G LTE". Wrong, of course, but that's what he "heard" :/ He uses few apps and has no other Apple gadgets so ecosystem is not a factor. Galaxy is the new "cool" here.

Apple started with the ecosystem and are fanning outward now. Android started by fanning outward and are now trying to build the ecosystem. Which one did it the right way? I think both directions create their own unique challenges. Apple has and continues to have total control over both the hardware and the software. They can specifically engineer their OS for their hardware. Android has a much harder path of making their OS work with multiple pieces of hardware. You can clearly see the growing pains on both sides, but you can also see how each platform is evolving to attract new users. Android users are going to iOS and vice versa.

Ideally -- and I think this is true -- there is room in someone's life for iOS and Android. Harmony.