At the halfway mark of Parliament, with the Government's economic targets essentially unreachable, is this the day Osborne pivots from Plan A?

Some background reading before today: newstatesman.com

The angriest piece I've read this morning was Matthew Norman in the Indy, on disability benefit cuts.

independent.co.uk

The Times' leader really was bizarre. It feels like they were short on word count and just chucked in something they had had on file since 2010. A complete pivot in tone and quality halfway through.

Here's a bingo card for the Autumn Statement, from nef:

Mark Ferguson of LabourList fame has laid out how employers have almost totally rejected Osborne's plan to cut workers' rights. I particularly like his use of the phrase "ideological barmpot" to describe the Chancellor:

Here's the first in our series of Autumn Statement wishlist blogs: "Osbourne stands on the brink of failing one of his golden fiscal rules" says Frances O'Grady of the TUC: newstatesman.com

SHouldn't it be "bampot"?

@Helen Lewis Is that the correct spelling? You'll have to take it up with Mark... Although I really feel this requires an MP to put down a parliamentary question to check how Osborne himself would like it spelled.

Meanwhile, in today's other big news, an Australian DJ prank-called the hospital where the Duchess of Cambridge is, and spoke to a nurse. The DJ was pretending to be "the Queen, Prince Charles, and one of the corgis"

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And here's Ros Altmann of Saga, who hopes that Osborne will finally introduce some policies to help savers newstatesman.com

Last night, NS blogger Gavin Kelly picked out five things to look out for in the Autumn Statement - chief among them, you need to be on "striver watch", he says.

I'll update you on striver watch later on - it's like Springwatch, but with economic policies instead of ferrets.

Ooh, Alastair Campbell:

alastaircampbell.org

Meeow.

(That was directed at Alastair Campbell, rather than being a random animal noise.)

LabourList's Mark Ferguson will be popping in from time-to-time too. Hi Mark!

Also today: Markit economics has released its all sector PMI. That's the survey of purchasing managers nationwide, and is a pretty good indication of future growth prospects. markit.com It's up slightly, but still remains firmly in "contraction" territory. Given the expectation that last quarter's boom was a one-off, we can expect a very slow quarter coming up.

This just in from Spear's Sophie McBain:

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Tony Dolphin from IPPR wants an admission from Osborne that his rules were "misconceived from the start":
newstatesman.com

Hello everyone. If you missed it earlier, here's my blog on how Osborne is cutting the NHS and increasing the deficit.

Dolphin's piece contains a really good suggestion:
"George Osborne should adopt a new rule specifying that the scale of spending cuts will vary according to the strength of the economy. When growth is weak, spending cuts should be scaled back; when it is strong, they should be speeded up."

It's basically a restatement of the standard Keynesian idea that you borrow in a boom and spend in a bust, but rephrased in a way that means Osborne might just go for it…

PoliticsHome's Paul Waugh has the bullish pre-Autumn-Statement quote from Osborne:

Possible PMQs subjects for Miliband: NHS spending, employers rejecting Osborne's rights-for-shares scheme, Israel and settlements.

George will be covering PMQs for the next 15 minutes or so…

An amusing slip from Cameron. "In addition to duties in *my* house".

Afternoon everyone - the New Statesman have kindly invited me to join in with the liveblog this afternoon. I'll be keeping tabs on bad news in the Autumn Statement - using the hashtag #thegoodnewskeepscoming

"In addition to duties in my house... THIS house... you would have thought I would have gotten used to it by now." Cameron

Alex Andreou – @sturdyalex from the twitters, and Top New Statesman Blogger (newstatesman.com) – joins us! Hi Alex.

As I predicted, Miliband leads on NHS spending.

Cameron insists real-terms spending has increased, while there would have been "cuts under Labour".

Miliband points out again that the UK Statistics Authority asked Cameron to correct the record: spending fell between 2009-10 and 2010-11.

And here's Andrew Harrop, who like Dolphin imagines what it would be like in a Balls/Cable alternative reality where the chancellor is a social democrat and Keynesian...
newstatesman.com

Miliband: "He made a solemn promise to the British people ... he failed to meet the promise. Come on, why don't you just admit it?"

As Christmas surprises go, this isn't the most exciting:
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Cameron replies: "Labour want to cut our NHS. It would never be safe with them again."

Miliband asks Cameron how big a tax cut he is giving to millionaires as a result of the abolition of the 50p rate.

Here's Harrop's key suggestion: "There would be a short-term stimulus, starting with a cut to employers’ national insurance and a massive public investment programme. Capital spending which guarantees a future revenue stream, such as house-building, would be ignored when it comes to plans for the national debt, meaning the government could promise a million new homes over five years."

Cameron points out that the top rate of tax will be higher in every year of this government than it was under Labour.

(Cameron, pointing out that the election happened "halfway through 2010" would do well to remember that he has regularly cited statistics starting from before that election to support his own program:
blogs.channel4.com)

But he doesn't answer Miliband's question. The answer the Labour leader replies is that income millionaires will receive an average of £107,000 from the move.

Miliband turns to the deficit and the coalition's failure to "balance the books". Cameron gives his usual reply: you can't reduce the deficit by borrowing more - as Labour would.

The Labour leader recalls the airbrushed poster of Cameron - "I'll cut the deficit, not the NHS" - the coalition is increasing the deficit and cutting the NHS, he says.

To which Cameron replies, basically, "no". Political debate of the highest quality in the mother of all parliaments, there.

The Andy Burnham interview about Labour's plans for the NHS that David Cameron referenced in PMQs is here - it was by Rafael Behr last year:

Both the NHS spending and the Budget Balancing lines of questioning were necessary but predictable. Cameron's prepared answers, positively Pythian...

ηξεις αφήξεις ουκ εν πολέμω θνήξεις

Now we've got fifteen minutes of whip-planted questions until the Autumn Statement…
Take the time to read the Andy Harrop suggestion above, or maybe this nice point-counterpoint from the Spectator and Touchstone:
blogs.spectator.co.uk
touchstoneblog.org.uk

Quick review: a stats-heavy PMQs in which neither leader landed any decisive blows. Cameron managed to hold his own on the NHS but Miliband won the day on the 50p rate.

Alex, I just pasted that into Google Translate. After I told it that it was Greek, not Chinese, it spat out this:

"ixeis afixeis in war quite a thnixeis"

Which, Helen, is clearly quite an important point to make (maybe).
Anyway, I like this colour from the Sindy's Jane Merrick:

The Mail's Tim Shipman reports that Osborne's Mum has come to watch him give the Autumn Statement:

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After Clegg gaves his own response to Leveson, the Guardian's Patrick Wintour reports that the Lib Dems will be holding their own briefing on the Autumn Statement.

ITV News' Political Editor makes this point, which I think he's despairing about, but is basically my utopia:

George, do you think that's likely to become a "thing" for the second half of parliament?

Pythia at the Oracle of Delphi was famous for giving ambiguous answers. Ήξεις αφήξεις ουκ εν τω πολέμω θνήξεις, depending on where you put the coma, could mean, "you will go and come back, you will not die at war" or "you will go but not come back, you will die at war".

There's been a lot of buzz around today that Britain might soon lose it's AAA rating (e.g. this, from Peston twitter.com). Don't expect too much from Osborne about the 'support of the ratings agencies' if that's the case.

Alex, I expect so, part of the prolonged "decoupling" of the parties ahead of the election.

PMQs before the Autumn Statement are a little like asking the kids to have their breakfast before opening their Christmas presents.

I know, right? Even the Americans are getting excited. Here's Business Insider's deputy editor, Joe Weisenthal:

@Alex Andreou
Suspect for everyone in the country who's not a politics nerd it's like having breakfast before having more, worse breakfast.

Cameron's declaration in PMQs that the coalition is "cutting the deficit" has prompted a lot of discussion. Does it mean Osborne has avoided a year-on-year rise? Borrowing so far this year is £5bn (7.4%) higher than in the same period last year.

*Grudging respect for the Spectator*: t.co

(That from @FraserNelson, and supports George's point pretty nicely)

George Osborne is doing Dirk Diggler's final speech from Boogie Nights in his head "You can do this. You are a star. You ARE a star."

Tax avoidance is a big deal in the second half of these PMQs, which poses a problem for both leaders – they'd want to get on top of it, but it's a REALLY tricky topic to deal with beyond vague generalities.

And a good question from ConservativeHome editor Tim Montgomerie.

It's 12:31pm but the the Autumn Statement hasn't started. As usual, John Bercow has allowed PMQs to overrun in order to fit in more backbench questions.

If Britain IS downgraded, as I mentioned above, don't worry too much. France just hit record-low bond yields.

Cameron says Labour's plan B stands for "bankruptcy".

Ann Clwyd asks question on NHS on the verge of tears.

"Order: STATEMENT, the Chancellor of the Exchequer". It begins.

Cameron in response: "I am a massive fan of our Health Service, a huge fan of the NHS." #Misery

"It's taking time, but the British economy is healing," starts George Osborne, to rapturous applause.

No, wait. The other one.

Guardian gives us the snapshot of the markets at the beginning of the statement. What'll they be like at the end?

"• £1 = $1.6101 against the US dollar, and €1.2322 against the euro

• FTSE 100 = up 11 points at 5880

• UK 10-year gilts: 1.819% (yield)"

guardian.co.uk

Over at LabourList I've just posted the following on one of Parliament's most pointless events - a PMQs before a big statement. The prawn cocktail before a horrific main course... labli.st

Agree with this, from Ed Miliband's advisor Stewart Wood:

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Telling there that the Speaker had to pull up the Chancellor in just a matter of minutes because of MPs laughing and jeering...

MARK FERGUSON! NOT IN FRONT OF THE LIVEBLOG!

Autotruncation fail, there, Mark.

Osborne repeats the myth that a million private sector jobs have been created under the coalition. 197,000 were reclassified from the public sector.

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As George wrote about in October: newstatesman.com

OBR forecasts growth of -0.1% this year.

pic.twitter.com/ZvIlTKET

Autumn Statement summary so far "None of this is my fault".

Have stopped laughing at prawn cock...tail now. And seen that the OBR has announced another downgrade in growth predictions. Are they the most useless body ever?

Osborne is pointing out that the crash was even worse than we thought, and so that's why his initial projections were off. Although Alex A's summary is also accurate.

Osborne: We're doing better than the Eurozone for unemployment.

Which, well, that's not saying much.

"For every job cut in the public sector, two jobs will be created in the private sector." sounds pretty good. "For every full-time tax inspector or nurse we cut, two part-time, burger-fryer positions will be created." less so.

Where's the good news that Dave promised?

I'm mostly leaving this to the experts, but I do feel like Tom Chivers of the Telegraph has hit on something here:

Osborne justifying a little-noticed move to put the Bank's QE holdings on the Treasury's balance sheet. The FT's Chris Giles covered the news best when it happened:
ft.com

"If you tilt your head just to the left and squint on a very cold day, the economy is doing very well."

Rather sneaky of Osborne not to give borrowing figures in cash terms without addition of QE interest.

Osborne defends the OBR's independence, but says little about its record, which is abysmal.

(This is an Autumn Statement of a man who reads all the economics leaders, and gets very annoyed he doesn't have a column of his own to respond)

Osborne says he will miss his second fiscal rule: debt won't begin to fall until 2016-17. Under the target it was meant to fall in 2015-16.

DINGDINGDING: "Britain's fiscal credibility"
A brief reminder, at this point, that "credibility" is a favourite of politicians because it is completely impossible to measure, and can be vaguely defended as good for any number of reasons.

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George Osborne once predicted growth in 2012 of 2.8%. Now it's predicted to be -0.1%. Let's see that as a graph...

When Osborne says "credibility", some people hear "bond yields", others hear "AAA rating", others hear "strength of the pound"m and so on. He gets to have his cake and eat it.

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Osborne confirms that austerity will last until 2018, not 2015 as originally planned.

"Those against [cuts] must say whether they would rather have higher taxes, higher borrowing or both" isn't much of a killer line. Labour already say they want higher taxes – that's why they were against cutting the 50p rate.
[And with interest rates where they are, EVERYONE should want higher borrowing. It's close to free money.]

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A little pre-announcement there, that Gove may possibly be about to clobber teachers.

Osborne announces further cuts to departmental budgets.

"Departmental resources" will be cut 1% this year and 2% next year.

Sneaky slight of hand from Osborne: The conservatives promised a *legal minimum* of 0.7% aid. He just said they were living up to their promise just by spending that amount. Where's the legislation?

Essentially, there is a lot of not cutting departmental budgets in percentage terms, but (since the economy is doing badly) cutting them in fact.

The Treasury has confirmed that a Spending Review will be held next year: "Detail of departmental spending plans for 2015-16 will be set at a spending review - announced during first half of 2013."

Microinitiatives! Some roads are being upgraded.

Some trains are being upgraded.

Some underground trains are being upgraded.

(In fact, because I Am A Nerd, I recognise that Northern Line upgrade from last year. A definite re-announcement.)

Defining question for Labour remains whether it will promise to match the coalition's 2015-16 spending plans (as it did in 1997) or outline its own independent programme.

When assessing the value of these microinitiatives, it is essential to look at what has happened to ones already announced. guardian.co.uk

A replacement for PFI which will allow the public sector to "Share in the rewards, as well as the risks".
[Surely the easiest way for the public sector to do that is to fund it directly from national borrowing. But what do I know]

HERE WE GO. Person leaving for work in the morning seeing their neighbours with blinds down. SNORE

Osborne's budgets are like those deceitful supermarket pizzas that have all the topping in the cellophane window.

Here's what I wrote last time Osborne brought up that ridiculous "going to work in the morning" thing. I was annoyed. newstatesman.com

No mansion tax.

I've been crunching the new borrowing numbers: Osborne is set to borrow £63bn more than forecast in the 2012 Budget.

And HERE's what I wrote last time Osborne announced the Northern Line extension: leftfootforward.org

DINGDINGDING "We're all in this together". Which… no.

[I actually thought that line had been retired]

So on Twitter ToryTreasury have admitted that Battersea Northern line extention was previously announced without the money being agreed. OOPS. Looks like Alex has them bang to rights here...

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Here are those borrowing figures in full.

2012-2013: £108bn - £120bn (2012 Budget forecast).
2013-2014: £99bn - £98bn
2014-2015: £88bn - £75bn
2015-2016: £73bn - £52bn
2016-2017: £49bn - £21bn
2017-2018: £31bn (no forecast in Budget).

Total additional borrowing: £63bn

Bizarre bit, there. Showing off that pensions are rising far above inflation, and immediately after, showing off that "working age" benefits are being cut in real terms.

Osborne announces freezes for various benefits for the next three years. All of which I thought were being replaced with one Universal benefit. CONFUSED?

Benefits to rise by just 1%. A real-terms cut for some of the poorest in the country.

Cutting welfare and top rate taxes. Making the rich richer and the poor poorer, quite literally and deliberately

This is, lest we forget, a reaction to the fact that benefits were uprated by a record amount due to *massive inflation* – inflation which has now fallen.

Channel 4 News's Faisal Islam tweets on Balls's response to the 1% benefits increase.

The higher rate tax threshold is cut in real terms again. This rate is absolutely *not* paid by the "super-rich", or even the rich. It's an upper-middle class tax, yes – the threshold is still well over the median income – but getting less and less so annually.

While Osborne made a point of excluding "disability benefits" from the real-terms cut, Employment Support Allowance – essentially, the in-work disability benefit – is not. So…

Everything so far has been a cut or freeze. There must be a big Christmas present at the end.

[I'm close to a bingo on my nef scorecard. Just need a "clumsy reference to Royal pregnancy"]

How many marginal seat Tories has Osborne praised so far today? Shameless stuff...

Here we go. Another 1% off corporation tax.

Osborne is phrasing a lot of business tax cuts as "investment". Opinions are split on how much tax cuts of this sort help, but they certainly aren't what most think of when they call for investment.

Corporation tax isn’t what is keeping the economy weak. The US rate is nearly twice ours and their economy is GROWING

By my calculation this extra cut in corporation tax mean that Starbucks, Amazon and Google will pay... Umm... £0 instead of £0.

Worth noting that most of the countries Osborne named with higher corporation tax than us are also far more economically successful.

Osborne cancels the fuel tax rise.

Personal tax allowance rises again.

As Alex says, income tax threshold will rise by more than expected - to £9,440 in 2013.

Osborne commends his statement to the house. Balls responds.

Balls: "Over the last two years the Chancellor was expecting 4.6% growth. He has actually achieved 0.6% growth."

Balls points out the "slowest recovery in a hundred years"

“Where are the figures?” says Ed Miliband. Has Osborne hidden things away from the House?

Balls getting a lot of unfair stick for not having seen the figures which he isn't allowed to see.

Labour MP David Lammy say it was "appalling" to see Tory MPs laughing at Ed Balls's "small stammer".

Balls: "It's not the rest of the world's fault. It is his policies that are failing."

Faisal Islam: