I remain very skeptical that mobile payments matter much at all in this context. The last 30 years are replete with financial innovations that experience either slow or limited take-up. For instance the "smart" credit card was the "next big thing" for almost 20 years.
The only payment technology that experienced rapid adoption over this timeframe is ATM cards, but those solved a very obvious problem and were piggy-backing on an existing infrastructure. Remember that widespread use of credit cards took decades. Also keep in mind that web-based banking, online bill pay and personal financial software all have relatively modest rates of adoption and none show any effect on macro-level usage behavior.
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