This is clearly worthy of its own discussion.

MG, regarding iPad Mini leaks... there's a quote from Charlie Wilson's War that comes to mind... "As long as the press sees sex and drugs behind the left hand, you can park a battle carrier behind the right hand and no one's gonna fucking notice."

Everyone's getting hot and bothered about the next iPhone, but no one is noticing the iPad Mini. Either means they're REALLY keeping it under wraps with maybe a longer lead time on launch, or it doesn't exist

iPad mini, iPad (not mini), iPod touch, iPod nano as well.

I think there is definitely enough iPad mini smoke for iPad mini fire. iMore and Bloomberg reporting it (NYT said it would be cheaper than the full-sized model), and Eddy Cue's email from the Samsung trial. However, there's no legitimate part leak evidence.

Perhaps Jordan's right with his Charlie Wilson quote. However, not all Apple products get leaked early in parts. Take pretty much every iPod ever (maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think so compared to recent iPhones and iPad 2 and 3). Also take almost every Mac ever into account.

First versions of products also seem to leak less than updated versions. Original iPhone, original iPod touch, original iPad.

I seem to recall getting a takedown notice way back in the day for a picture of the fat iPod nano (which I didn't find, just reposted) — so yes, there have been iPod leaks in the past. It has gotten much worse, but I would imagine that's mainly because the interest in Apple is SO much greater.

That's interesting Rene. Maybe the employees/workers leaking just aren't sure what they're looking at?

Rene, however, iPhone 5 parts (Seemingly legit ones) leaked out in May. May to September is 4 months. iPad mini announcement to launch won't be 4 months. This is the fact that keeps getting to me when wondering why iPad mini stuff isn't leaking.

MG, right (that was Seth at 9to5 btw :P) but that wasn't a part leak. Doubling down, we haven't seen any pics lately.

MG, yes, I was on the wrong side of that Fatty iPod takedown notice which also came with leaks of the original iPod touch so 1st gen products do leak occasionally - to answer Rene's comment.

As far as the Mini is concerned, I think there are some bezel surprises ahead ;)

Oh, breaking news on Branch? Nice.

For the record, I do believe the iPad mini is coming based on nothing other than all the signs pointing to it — namely Rene's report *immediately* validated by WSJ and NYT, among other things. But I find the component absence all this time curious.

Before he gets here, Arnold's tweet sounds right on the surface twitter.com

It just seems different.

- First iPad didn't leak. Launch was 2 months after announcement.

- iPhone 5 parts leaked four months before announcement/release

- iPad mini is surely within 4 months of launch and nothing has leaked.

-Only pattern here is first generations not leaking, but it makes no sense in this scenario.

There have been some parts leaks rumors for the "Mini iPad" but none that I trust yet.

9to5mac.com

One set has rounded edges without a camera on the back. The other set is shaped like a current iPad 2/New with camera (and only by case makers).

Apple can't announce existing product lines and then ramp production. Sales would plummet in the in-between time. So that's why iPhone 5 has to ramp now. So there's enough to ship.

Original iPhone parts? No one cared. The iPhone was shown in all its glory 6 months ahead. Original iPad had no part leaks prior either. It had a delayed ramp up too. Jan announce -> March availability.

^What Arn said. But is Apple trying to hit the holidays in full production with the iPad Mini (not just first ones off the assembly lines)? If so, it doesn't have a lot of time like it did with original iPad.

Other factor could be that iPad mini is an easier ramp. No new technology. Same screen density. Old processors. Just a new form factor.

Remember that with Apple, the simplest answer is usually the best answer. The iPad mini is a brand new product that likely will appeal to a whole new segment of customers, those who haven't bought an iPad because of price or size. Since its going after new customers it can launch it any time it wants...as long as it's in time for Christmas.

So I think parts aren't here because they haven't ramped production yet.

Regarding what Arn said about parts, the screen will definitely be easier. Literally changing the cut size on existing machines will take care of that. All of the other internal components will be the same aside from battery. Casings are new as well. So two months for battery and casing? I think it's possible.

Also no code leaks for iPad mini. But like Arn said "No new technology. Same screen density. Old processors. Just a new form factor."

Also: We posted a date for iPhone 5 launch, didn't post one for iPad mini launch date (only announce date).

Also, with November launch which seems to be the window indicated above, any manufacturing issues become a big deal (see white iPhone 4). One component doesn't work out and Apple misses a holiday shopping season. Seems a little high risk for a supply-side guy like Tim Cook.

And keep in mind, a $250-ish Mini iPad would sell like gangbusters the world over.

It was a half year after announcement before Apple caught up with original iPad demand. That's a lot of sad little boys and girls on Christmas morning.

I think we're missing on the rumored other iPods. Those aren't getting barely any lead time ahead of launch. Those haven't leaked.

I think a Bluetooth 4.0-enabled ipod Nano could steal the show personally.

Bluetooth 4S?

Mini-specific code might not need to be merged into the main branch until the GM, after it's been announced, Mark.

So does Georgia, Seth. She already has a watch strap picked out.

Well nothing iPhone 5-ish has really leaked in the code. 1136 x 640 display is kinda the only thing, and that's not *truly* a code-based finding. The iPad mini res is programmed in as well, but it has been since 2010 :P

The iPad mini would have to start shipping by mid to late Oct. to have enough supply for the holiday shopping season. That's still not a lot of time from the announce date.

The biggest reveal will be when Apple actually reschedules the holiday shopping season. "We've got something really exciting to show you. It's the second week of January. We call it Brushed Metal Friday. We think you're going to love it."

Could it be a tactical announce in September but a ship date in December? Pre-orders Nov 15-ish. Market-supression-wise, the person who would wait for a 7" iPad possibly wouldn't have bought a full-size iPad anyway -- they'd have bought a Fire or a Nexus. Long lead time might put some pinch in current iPad sales but it would also keep buyers from moving to Android as they wait.

They wouldn't have bought a Fire or Nexus (not saying that to be a jerk, it's just the reality of the current market -- neither are anywhere near good enough yet).

iPad mini is a hundreds of millions of units play. Apple's isn't targeting the narrow slice of "we'll put up with it because it's small" Amazon or Google tablet market, they're targeting the huge swathe of "I'd have bought an iPad if only it was much lighter and cost around $200" market.

If Apple does nothing in the category, Fire or Nexus could one day/year become good enough to get share, and that's probably a motivator.

That said, I think Mike's premise is excellent: "Here's the iPad mini, you can order soon and we'll ship it to you in time for the holidays" could work.

If only we had an example of a major tech vendor that pre-announces products well before they ship in order to create swirl and indecision in the market... *whistles*

I haven't seen Apple pre-announce a product with a huge lead time that wasn't the first of its kind for the industry. The iPhone, let's be honest, was the first phone of the phones we know of today. The iPad invented the modern table. Pretty much the only exception I can think of is the iPhone 3G which was over a month.

It's all about calendar Q4...so I would guess that products need to ship in time to fully monetize the quarter, while saving something for January to make the give the next quarter a boost. Apple has been extraordinary at timing its releases to maximize its financial engine

hey