I just read this old article about global warming, and suddenly I find myself trying to talk @nspicer into investing in a climate change-hedged investment fund, or maybe buying real estate in Alaska.

rollingstone.com

Normally I'm all about index funds, but doesn't this seem like exactly the kind of unprecedented risk that the market is terrible at pricing in? Also, after reading that article it seems clear to me that things are going to get MUCH worse, the only question is when. So my question to you guys is, are you planning for the climate change apocalypse at all? Or am I being crazy, like when I wanted to buy a gun after reading The Road?

I believe my answer is: it seems like it's time to freak out but I'm not really doing much proactive about that. The hedge fund approach is an interesting one and I'd be keen to know if you've got one you like.

Climate change is Ev's biggest concern and was part of the rationale behind Beyond Meat (it's way greener.) But Obvious as a whole hasn't found a great way to help on climate.

Basically the question is: will things get bad enough quickly enough to spur "let's fight this like a war or pandemic" type response. Or will we just boil the frog for another century or so, gradually making life worse and worse for poor counties but only in a way that inspires marginal response.

I read a different article in Rolling Stone at a doctor's office almost 10 years ago. I can't find it but I remember it saying that in something like 75 years the world's population will grow to something like 8 billion and then dramatically shrink by 50% because of food and water scarcity.

Here is a similarly scary prediction: scientificamerican.com

The thought of seeing people dying on such a massive scale in places like sub-Saharan Africa is so disturbing. I try not to think about it, but I feel like it's this inevitable dystopian future I won't be able to handle.

Going without meat and flying less is a pretty great way to make an impact. I just signed up for email to stay updated on all things Beyond Meat :)

This tweet made the same war analogy. And the linked NYT graphic is terrifying.

twitter.com

Aggh, that is really scary. This does feel like a WW2-level catastrophe, doesn't it? And we're not even that quick to respond to invading armies, just ask Winston Churchill. And climate change is a harder collective action problem than that, with a much less obvious villain. So basically I think we're effed. There's no way we're going to avoid this, significant climate change with catastrophic consequences is absolutely coming, probably in @sputbaby's lifetime if not ours.

So that's made me start to wonder -- if I don't think it's avoidable anymore, does that change how I think about it? Like, should I be planning for it instead of just trying to stop it?

I think this is why meaningful action is hard. It feels like preparing for death. Putting solar panels on your roof and having a greener car or no car. That's all good but it's not gonna save us.

Are we at the point where we stop trying to prevent the problem and begin treating the symptoms? I believe it is important to take a balanced approach and do both.

I don't think we are going to get through to financial and energy interests before it's too late because we've already passed that point. Nonetheless, there are major ancillary benefits to operating as a more efficient society and convincing our political leaders to work toward that goal. Smarter energy and transportation networks; community living; eating for the environment, and environmental justice all translate to a cleaner, healthier society, regardless of the impending doom of climate change. We should be freaking out, but in a positive way.

While I think it is too late for meaningful action to prevent climate change from occurring in the first place, I tend to think that we still have a shot at minimizing the impact. How? I dont know ... it sure doesnt feel like there is enough momentum for collective action to make the right decisions. So maybe we just need to hope we are lucky and either (a) technology advances and adoption becomes widespread or (b) there is some feedback loop that the Earth has which we havent taken into account in the climate models and the results arent as bad as we feared.

Oh, also, it seems like the downsides of climate change wont be evenly distributed .... low-lying, developing countries may have a really hard time adjusting, but I tend to think places like the US will manage to plod along. Barring societal collapse (a la The Road), of course.

Positive freaking out! I like that. I wish I knew more about how to support planning for the warmpocalypse, though, so I could take said balanced approach. Like, what's the equivalent of clean tech for a post-global-warming world? Desalination technology? Newer and better seawalls? Canned food? What charities help people in the developing world who are suffering more and more from droughts and weather events? Unicef? Prevention gets all the attention because it's so much less depressing than preparing for global warming, so I have no idea what one does to support said preparation.

Wow this seems like a really interesting split in the global warming debate: prevention vs planning. Potable water seems like a good place to start for sure. Charity:water's efforts are pretty inspiring on that front but I've not heard them connect their message/approach explicitly to global warming.

Going back to an investment thesis standpoint: would be worth finding the companies that had a novel approach to dealing with disaster logistics and construction. The folks who can come in and help rebuild infrastructure after a disaster.

This contraption is getting a lot of good press (disaster relief):
examiner.com
Their website sucks though. Someone should help them out.
pendulumpump.otmamto.com

Man, now I wish I'd asked mom for that pump for Christmas instead of a Roku. ;) There have to be some good businesses in recycling rubble post-disaster, like Jason mentioned, this kind of thing:

gatech.edu

Drought-resistant crops also seem promising to me.

Nick, Brooks, do people in the your world talk about this stuff? Maybe not when civilians are around, because you don't want us to think you've given up?