Despite Apple's stated goal of doubling-down on secrecy, it *seems* like nearly every part of the next iPhone has leaked out. Is it just an impossible-to-solve weakness in the overseas supply chain? Are they fake plants to throw people off the scent? Or are they self-leaks to set expectations?
I vote against the parts being self-leaks. I've seen, and later had confirmed, things being tipped to press that allowed Apple to manage expectations and they were never components of a product.
That 'tall screen' rumor from a Verge caller? That seems more like Apple's style. Everyone has had months to get used to a widescreen iPhone. Enough time that it now seems inevitable. That's the kind of thing they do.
I don't think there's any expectations to be managed beyond 'it looks like the current iPhone, but with a taller screen', which was already taken care of by the early rumors and mockups.
No way Apple is giving it to The Verge though. It'll be interesting to see how many of the leaks are true.
Sure, I'm definitely not saying that was Apple calling in, I'm just saying that's more their style.
I think it's fair to say that while leaks from inside Apple (directly) may have been plugged, Apple can't really touch the breadth of the supply chain. Numerous companies creating various parts that move parts cross-continent for final manufacturing. It's inevitable that a few pieces from each unique assembly line that produces each unique iPhone component will leak out. While I think Apple leaked certain information to the media, I think parts are off limits.
Also @mpanzarino, this is the guy who made that Verge forum post twitter.com
That was the post, but the post was generated from a phone call in to the Verge podcast. So that forum post wasn't the genesis of the idea.
It's a classic security problem. They face social engineering problems (people talk), and the high value target problems (case makers and others want to know). That considerable pressure on the supply chain.
I agree with Mark. They may start making moves to plug those holes though. Maybe that's what Tim meant by doubling down on security.
The supply chain is literally hundreds of thousands of people, it may be impossible to ever eliminate leaks completely. But they might find other ways. I conjectured a while back, I can't remember where, that Apple might find ways to compress the amount of time it takes to ramp up manufacturing from test to full production units. This could enable them to begin full production only weeks before an announcement and just a bit more before shipment. The transport time is likely the biggest hurdle, but remember that Apple deal with DHL for the new iPad?
Stuff like that could allow them to produce, ship and announce in a short period of time, thereby lowering the window for leaks.
macrumors.com
But I wouldn't say the leaks are coming out of Foxconn. I know that because leaks happened months before production started. It's the small component makers. We've seen COMPONENTS leaks, never the entire device out of the supply chain. There are hundreds of companies each making a little bit of the iPhone that Foxconn glues together in the end. Those companies are the source of the leaks. This isn't really stoppable.
And in terms of any improvement in supply chain secrecy. We had an iPad 2 display, and MacRumors had an iPad 3 display. Nobody seems to have an iPhone 5 display.
And what about the thought that Apple should plant fakes to flood the rumor mill with bullshit? I think that would be pretty smart on their end. Not only could it throw us off the scent, it could create a new era of mystery (no one knows what to believe).
On the flip-side, it sounds like a logistical nightmare to pull off effectively. Apple hates wasting time on things and such an effort would be a huge diversion. But if the end result is a better user experience (legitimate surprise), maybe they explore it. Or maybe they already are.
I think the danger in that is that if they produce things that aren't real, the chance that one of them will be hailed as the 'real' and 'favorite' one, but that isn't, is too great. Apple's prototypes tell the tale, they decided on the iPhone 4's design in 2004 and it took them years to get it right, they're not going to put a bunch of stuff out there that's different just to obscure the 'truth'. Not only does it expose what could be a window into the design thought process, but it also smacks of catering to the public and the rumor mill, which Apple doesn't do.
And the wasted time is huge. Apple is shipping an OS, a tablet, a portable game console, a phone and a mobile OS every year. It has a limited pool of resources to make that happen and it had to grow by 15k employees just to get iOS 5 and Lion out.
I don't think Apple has planted fake supply chain information in the past. I don't think the iPhone 5 parts we've seen thus far are fake, definitely not. All the parts (from a vast amount of sources) all seem to match up. See the diagram iFixYouri made with us: 9to5mac.com
Also, the design leaks match up with what is being floated internally. I don't think Apple has done it yet, but perhaps if these supply chain leaks continue, they may find planting false info worthwhile.
Though... theverge.com
The cost of Apple doing canary traps or false is next to nothing at early design stages, non-trivial at manufacturing stages.
Similar to putting iPhone 10,1 in iOS strings to poke fun at Mark, an iPhone design rumor in before April is probably cheap. After July they'd really have to want to devote resources to it.
As far as fakes, there was the Asteroid Firewire product Apple planted to catch leakers lowendmac.com
And the jury is still out on all of those 'tear drop' cases that were built prior to the iPhone 4S launch (we heard there was a bigger prototype that didn't make the final cut fwiw)
9to5mac.com
Finally, a lot of pubs seemed to think the original iPad would come in near $1000 in price - in the same articles where they would make obviously 'connected' predictions.
online.wsj.com
When Jobs announced the $499 price tag, everyone was shocked even though that price makes a lot of sense when you survey the scene.
I think they should just keep putting strings in the OS to make fun of Mark :)
I'm almost completely certain that the current set of parts have not been purposefully leaked. What they'll do in the future, I think, largely depends on whether they feel it affects their bottom line. Cook/Oppenheimer mentioned at least twice on the recent earnings call that rumors had affected their numbers for the quarter (if I recall, this was mentioned once during a call when Steve was around as well). Yes, they'll get a big bounce next quarter because those who have waited will buy, but if Apple feels the bounce wasn't big enough, or that their cashflow is being interrupted due to rumors, all bets are off. It's a new administration.
They probably put the 9-pin code in when everyone was saying a different number. You know, just to add to the discussion.
The earnings call comments don't match up with several mainstream publications confirming the announcement date after @reneritchie posted it.
Hey now ;)
I'm not making any assumptions :)
More and more I think the hardware isn't what's interesting in iOS anymore. Yes, the retina screen on the iPad is cool, but all the REALLY neat stuff is in software. We've seen a few leaks (Maps and such) on that side, but I suspect there's more to come in iOS 6.
Jordan, I can confirm 199 new features in the next major iOS release besides Maps.
@jlgolson Absolutely, the hardware has been working its way toward disappearing, and Apple can control the secrecy of the software features much more fully. (In most cases).
Yeah, the $1,000 price that Seth mentioned above reeked of a strategic plant after the fact. $499 was the absolute bombshell (or "BOOM!", if you will) that Jobs dropped like a boss.
Software leaks are easier to plug because there is no supply chain or anyone outside of Apple (except in rare cases like third-party integration. Twitter and Yelp) dealing with the product.
I'm sure Yukari Kane was happy about that MG, Seth
And so what about the notion of Apple moving at least some manufacturing to the U.S.? Would that help at all? Obviously, they won't move it all back, but even some could help, no?
Well, we haven't seen the Texas-made A-Chip leak yet. BUT, we've seen the Corning.
That iPad price plant (hindsight) and screen size (foresight) are the kinds of things that I see Apple slipping out there in order to either surprise or move past the discussion onto other things. Sort of like the YouTube app going away. Apple didn't have to remove it from the beta, but they did. Even if the license was running out for the app, it's still being licensed for iOS 5 and previous devices. I'm sure they could have worked something out.
Apple wanted the discussion of the YouTube removal out of the way because they have other things to talk about on announcement day. That's how they manage expectations and control the conversation.
Remember what Tim Cook said at ATD10? Lots of manufacturing IS done in the US -- Gorilla Glass, Samsung chips, etc. It's all assembled in China, but thousands are employed making iPhone parts.
Will Apple move its manufacturing back to the US? Maybe someday -- but don't hold your breath. The regulations are mind-bogglingly difficult.
In the long run, however, anything made in the U.S. is shipped to Asia for manufacturing 1-3 months prior to release anyways.
My aunt's company looked into moving manufacturing here instead of contracting with Chinese companies -- just doing research to see how much it would cost. It wasn't a price issue -- it was a regulation and labor force issue.
The labor force doesn't exist, regulations are too restricting, taxes are too high. Much easier to just outsource everything.
Software leaks often lead to hardware specs because Apple is integrated hardware software - remember? ;). We've gotten NFC, the 1136x640 display (twice), 1GB RAM and a host of other info from both Apple internal and external iOS builds
NFC would seem to point the other direction as well - If NFC hardware is there, then it is likely that Apple would use in in future software.
Yes, Seth. 9to5Mac is the best. But what will Apple actually DO with those NFC chips? Who are they partnering with?
That's what's really interesting.
The inevitable next question (perhaps worth branching into its own thread): so if we are seeing all these new iPhone leaks, where are the iPad mini component leaks?
Hardware leaks aren't as important as software leaks but if is going to actively do a better job of these they'll have to enforce NDAs & think about manufacturing a 'Made in USA' product. Google just did this and although doesn't care what Google stamps on their hardware, the term 'Made in the USA' means a lot in 2012. With the new global economy and 'cheap labor' should consider this. Maybe not everything but start somewhere like iOS devices. There would also be more leak protection too. Penalties could also be enforced as well if this did happen.
We already pay more for products so why not consider American hands assembling an American-owned company? Made in the USA > Assembled in the USA or China.
And you know Seth, those aren't software leaks -- those are hardware leaks that happen to come from software.
MG: you should branch, I think that's a big topic
MG, regarding iPad Mini leaks... there's a quote from Charlie Wilson's War that comes to mind... "As long as the press sees sex and drugs behind the left hand, you can park a battle carrier behind the right hand and no one's gonna fucking notice."
Everyone's getting hot and bothered about the next iPhone, but no one is noticing the iPad Mini. Either means they're REALLY keeping it under wraps with maybe a longer lead time on launch, or it doesn't exist.
Okay, I just branched the bigger iPad mini discussion, sorry Jordan for not doing it before your interesting input. Feel free to move it over :) Everyone else can keep talking bigger picture here or move over there. Or both.
Apple has maintained their position as supply-chain wizards by constantly out-pacing the manufacturing cycle. As a monstrously large company with exceptional money in the bank, it's in their interest to invest in NFC and establish a distribution chain even if it is never seen in a product.
But Apple has a flair for theatre, unpredictability, suspense. Beautiful as the prescriptive standard for Apple design is, it is no longer the center of the dramatic intrigue. We take cues from what we have seen of iOS 6, but calculation turns to speculation when software changes that are missing: what is this year's Siri? Software with incremental (albiet substantial) hardware upgrades made the 4S. Hardware speculation alone falls short.
While I hope Apple surprises us with something new when they unveil the new iPhone, I don't see how they can risk it with so little time between announcement and release. They won't have enough time to really test a new headlining feature like widgets or whatever. I'd love for them to surprise us, but I think iOS 6 is going to be iterative like Mountain Lion.
Most of the iPhone hardware leaks come from Chinese workers who have been bribed to steal the components, right?
In this 'underground economy', it probably comes down to supply and demand. The market price for a leaked iPhone component is probably just higher than other Apple products because of its sheer popularity.
With a higher price, the workers have more incentive to risk their jobs stealing iPhone components, causing the disproportionate number of iPhone leaks versus other Apple devices.
Thanks for your feedback! Team Branch
