Fred believes there are benefits of fragmentation that are a "big plus". I completely disagree. I believe the negatives far outweigh any positives and I think the market will prove this out over the next couple of years.
I think we'll see a few key Android devices rise while the others linger. And the OEMs will start cutting their lines down to focus. Just like another company that makes another mobile OS.
A lot of this is about consumers, but more important are developers. While being on as many devices as possible sounds great in theory, it's a huge pain in the ass to try to develop and maintain a great product across them all. In fact, for many smaller development teams, it's impossible.